It is predicted that the UK will be facing a national shortage of driving instructors in the upcoming months. In fact it’s a forgone conclusion!
Following the national lockdowns in the UK, there is a huge backlog of eager learners wanting driving lessons and unfortunately not enough driving instructors to teach them all.
We are looking for driving instructors interested in joining our driving school franchise, or anyone interested in a career change who wants to become a driving instructor.
The UK is heading for a driving instructor shortage
The owner of driveJohnson’s, Anthony Johnson, recently wrote to the Secretary of State for Transport regarding his major concerns for the industry stating the following. The content below was sent to the Secretary of State for Transport, Grant Shapps, on 11th November 2020. So far, there has been no response. Many local MPs have responded positively to the concerns, though we understand Mr Shapps is more concerned in spending £1.7 billion on a tunnel passing under Stonehenge than addressing the rising supply and demand ratio issue of driving lessons to available instructors.
Problems the Driver Training industry is currently facing
- Around 5,000 to 8,000 instructors have left the industry, or they haven’t returned to work since 4th July 2020. It’s hard to accurately assess the data as the DSVA have only released statistics up-to June 2020. What we can see is that there have only been 1,265 ADI badge renewals in 2020/21 compared to the 2019/20 figures showing 7,185. Please bear in mind the ADI register has floated between 38,000 to 40,000 instructors over the past five years.
- The majority of the damage to the industry happened between May 2020 and July 2020. The DVSA remained silent throughout the lockdown when the industry needed answers, which they failed to provide and ignored the pleas when asked during communication with them. The industry was left second-guessing when they would be able to work; the Government forced the DVSA’s hand by announcing instructors could work from 4th July 2020.
- We can safely assume the 2020/2021 figures will be alarming. When they are published in June 2021, the damage to thousands of instructors and learners will have already been done. It is almost certain that the driving instructor industry will lose 25% of the register because of COVID-19.
The consequences of not allowing instructors to work under essential work guidelines:
- The waiting time for a driving test is realistically between 9 and 12 months. When the DVSA releases a new batch of tests, they will be booked up within days. We are currently waiting for May 2021 tests to be released at the time of writing. The moment these tests are released, any May slots will be filled within one week.
- The Government’s goal is to stop the spread of the virus; there are three ways to travel to work safely to minimise the spread – walk, cycle or drive.
- Roughly 1.5 million driving tests are conducted each year. With both lockdowns and lack of driving tests, this figure will be down at least 60-70% at the end of the year. Have a look for yourself; driving examiners will have been off work for approximately five months after the most recent lockdown. From 24th July 2020, they started tests very slowly and many test centres were not open until late August 2020.
- We believe the examiners were only back to normal testing hours for 7-8 weeks before the second lockdown was announced. They were not working at full capacity of 7 driving tests a day, but have been on full pay throughout the period, despite a drop in the income from driving test fees etc.
- People are losing their jobs at a colossal rate across the country. One of the biggest attractions to an employer is knowing their potential employee can drive. On top of that, the opportunity for someone searching for re-employment is much higher if they possess a driving licence. We can expect close to 750,000 to 1 million people not possessing a driving licence as a result of the COVID-19 lockdowns and, each time the Government prevents the industry from working, this number will increase.
- We know the unemployment rate is going to increase before it comes back down. While many people can still afford it (before furlough ends), does it not make sense to keep driving tests going for the future of employment and to prevent more instructors quitting as they can’t afford to keep not working during lockdown?
- If instructors keep leaving the industry, supply and demand will change. We have already seen it – the average lesson price across the UK has gone up by £3-5 an hour. This will continue to rise as we see more instructors leaving the industry in the short-term. Only those who do not live week to week will hang in there for the long-term gains. However, for the public, it will cost more and take longer to pass the driving test.
- Lesson prices will remain high until we see new instructors join the industry. The ADI register will not return to 38,000-40,000 for around 18-24 months, which is too late for those looking for jobs when furlough ends in March 2021.
The effect on the DVSA
The DVSA will have lost millions of pounds in tests due to the limited services being offered. The DVSA’s business plan for 2019/2020 was for 80% of testing to be conducted at a 6-week waiting time.
The DVSA won’t get to that waiting time for at least two years, possibly even longer if the industry keeps getting put into lockdown. Also, the natural loss they will have with staff leaving and not being able to react and recruit in such a short term, as the training process takes many months.
It will take years to get the ADI register back to the 40,000 that we were at before the pandemic. For every 10,000 ADI badge renewals lost at £300, that’s a £3 million loss in income. The DVSA are still paying staff a full-time wage despite not working at all or even at full capacity of 7 tests a day. The DVSA have an equivalent of 2,000 driving examiners, who on average, are paid approximately £26,000 per year.
They have not tested for four months, but have still been paid approximately £17,333,333.30. With no income from test fees during this time, how is that sustainable? Surely the DVSA need to review this and their finances, as the self-employed are only able to claim 80% and other organisations which are using the furlough scheme. Is the DVSA using the furlough scheme?
From this, it’s clear to see why there is no rush for DVSA or its staff to be back conducting tests anytime soon while they are still on full pay.
Summary
At some point, we are going to be encouraged to return to work. However, there is going to be a lack of jobs and opportunities. Anyone without a driving licence is going to be at a significant disadvantage. For the next six months at least, driving lesson prices will be the highest they have been for ten years. By July/August 2021, the competition will start to come back as new instructors may want to enter the industry, but prices won’t stabilise to an affordable rate for at least 12 months.
If you’re considering a career change to a driving instructor, now is the perfect time to make a move as the industry needs you more than ever. By the time you qualify, you will miss the uncertainty the industry is experiencing and benefit from those who dropped out of the sector between March 2020 to March 2021.
The solution
While education can continue during lockdowns, allow driving lessons to continue to ease the short and long-term backlog. Each person who passes their driving test will inevitably use their car during the pandemic rather than public transport. We can kill three birds with one stone by allowing driving tests to continue during this lockdown and any future lockdowns:
- Reduce the spread of the virus short and long term. Each person who can drive is less reliant on public transport.
- Reduce unemployment rate and increase job opportunities. A driving licence is one the first things an employer checks on a CV/interview.
- Lesson prices are soaring because demand for lessons is soaring. Allow testing to carry on so driving lessons remain more affordable.
Increase in demand for driving lessons
While the number of driving instructors declines, the demand for driving lessons is higher than ever. One reason for this is due to the 2003 ‘baby boom’ which saw a significant spike in births compared to the previous three years. Based on birth rates alone, it is predicted that around 695,000 people will turn 17 in 2020 – an increase of 27,000 people compared to 2019.
The number of people turning 17 is set to continue to grow in the years 2021-2025, with an estimated 794,383 people turning 17 in 2025.
Estimated number of people turning 17 in the years 2021 to 2025:
From these figures, it’s clear to see why booking a driving lesson in the years to come may be more difficult. However, if we can encourage more people to join the driving instructor profession, we can help minimise the issue.
Number of instructors vs potential learners
To put things into perspective, we’ve compared the number of driving instructors with the number of potential learners in the coming years to see the supply vs demand. This is a rough estimation of the number of learner drivers per instructor and doesn’t take into consideration anyone over the age of 17 wanting driving lessons; therefore, the number of potential learners could be even higher!
A breakdown of the figures is shown in the table below:
As you can see the figures from 2019 to 2021 show an approximate 7.5% change in demand. It’s hard to compare 2020 to 2021 as 2020 has virtually been a write off for driving lessons and DVSA testing.
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION: This above table doesn’t take into consideration that there is an overspill of cancelled tests from 2020 because of the virus so the % change could be as much as 12-15%. Over 1 million driving tests have been cancelled this year out of 1.5 million tests. If we assume 500,00 people didn’t take their driving test as expected this would increase the 17-18 year olds in one year wanting to learn to drive to around 1.2 million compared tot eh table which is 716,996.
Fewer people using public transport
The covid-19 people has also resulted in fewer people using public transport, also resulting in a higher demand for driving lessons. Many people are worried about using public transport due to the risk of catching coronavirus and lack of social distancing on some public transport.
Those who have relied on public transport will have been looking for alternative methods of transport, and many will have decided to take matters into their own hands. Being in a car by yourself is a lot safer than travelling on public transport, where the risk of catching the virus increases significantly. This is another reason why the demand for driving lessons is set to continue increasing and why we are desperate for more instructors to come on board.
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If you’re interested in training to become a driving instructor, there couldn’t be a better time than now. To become a driving instructor, you will need to successfully pass all 3 part of the driving instructor training tests; we will help you and provide expert training along every step of the way.
